Scenario Planning In Uncertain Times: Keep the Mission Moving

Scenario planning often sounds like a board retreat buzzword, but in this Nonprofit Power Week episode it becomes a practical playbook with receipts. Director Tesa Piccioni of Your Part-Time Controller (YPTC) reframes uncertainty as a routine operating condition, not a meteor strike. Her thesis is disarmingly simple: “Let’s take the un out of uncertainty and accept that certain things are going to happen. Let’s prepare.” Preparation, she argues, isn’t about predicting every storm—it’s about building a habit of visibility and fast pivots.

We start with the kitchen-table finance questions: What do you have? What do you owe? What’s promised in and promised out? From there, the “boring” stuff—clean records, timely allocations, grant restrictions, and a rolling forecast—becomes the organization’s superpower. As Tesa puts it, “If you have good information in, you get good information out—and that lets you act, not just react.” She expands the aperture beyond budgets: think balance sheet integrity, a just-in-case line of credit, and board fluency in financials so decisions don’t stall during turbulence.

The clever twist: scenarios aren’t just bad-news drills. Tesa insists on planning for lucky breaks too—unexpected windfalls, mergers, or a connector board member who opens doors. That $1.5M surprise check? Without a plan, it’s chaos with confetti. With a plan, it’s momentum.

Her practical framework pairs SWOT with three starter lenses: revenue up, revenue down, and environmental change. Master those, and you’re not memorizing scripts; you’re training reflexes. Equally important, it’s not a finance-only sport. Program leads, executives, and boards need shared situational awareness so services continue even if the lights don’t.

Tesa links this directly to strategy: strategic planning sets the destination; scenario planning keeps the route open when reality tosses detours. Review cadence? Not annually—responsively. The moment regulations shift, funds lag, or opportunities appear, open the playbook and adjust. That rhythm replaces anxiety with calm, which is precisely what constituents deserve.

The payoff is cultural: organizations stop operating in crisis posture and start operating with poise. Think FEMA’s checklists, but for food banks, youth programs, and arts orgs—quiet competence that protects the mission on ordinary Tuesdays and extraordinary Thursdays alike.

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